The Atlanta Journal Constitution (AJC) is at it again raising questions about Stacey Abrams’ support among Black voters, particularly Black men. In the same article, the AJC presents Gov. Kemp as a candidate enjoying a heathy share of the Black vote at about 10 percent. Remember this is the same newspaper that had Mayor Andre Dickens in single digits way behind former Mayor Kasim Reed and then City Council President Felicia Moore a few weeks before the election. We know the outcome of that race.
The AJC also predicted dire outcomes for senators Warnock and Ossoff. It was wrong again. Political polling is anything but an exact science, but the polls they use are extremely flawed. The Abrams’ campaign has responded, and I have inserted their response below. Please take the time to read their response and do not become disheartened.
Having said that, I do believe the Abrams’ campaign has been sluggish and off the pace of 2018 election. This is a problem for the campaign and a problem for us. Ask yourselves: What will Georgia be like in the next four years when women can’t make health decisions about their own bodies? What will happen when minorities’ voting rights have been rolled back? What will life be like in inner city neighborhoods when gun violence ravages our communities even more than now because Kemp and other gun fanatics don’t believe in common sense gun regulation like having to obtain a license to own a gun? And what will happen to fairness and social justice when Kemp keeps enabling corporate greed by handing out tax breaks and other incentives to lure big tech, big pharma, and big autos to our communities in the name of jobs and economic development?
Ask yourselves what would it look like in Georgia if Kemp stays in the governor’s mansion and Republicans take back the U.S. House and Senate? Will there be a democracy of any sorts anymore? Will we be closer to or farther from reaching the potential, promises, and ideals of the U.S. Republic? Will people of color, workers, women, and children be better off in Kemp’s Georgia than in Abram’s? These are not trick questions. It is true Abrams has never been a governor, nor has any African American woman. But Kemp had never been one either prior to this term.
One final word to Black men. I must say to my brothers–grow up. I hear too many snide remarks about Abrams’ size, skin complexion, and hairstyle and texture. For sure she is not the warmest and fuzziest person you will meet. Nor were other great Black leaders from Marcus Garvey to Fannie Lou Hammer. But do we know Kemp to be any different? This election should not be about optics or personalities. It should not be about Abram’s stroking my, or any other Black man’s, ego. It should be about who’s political views and ability to drive change will help the majority in our community. The belief that Kemp will represent our vested interest better than Abrams, in my mind, is a form of self-hatred and what Maynard Jackson referred to as the “scared Negro syndrome.”
Politically mature voters always vote for their enlightened self-interest. We have an interest in addressing health disparities, economic equity, police brutality and criminal justice reform, housing affordability, and more. We probably better not sit this one out. There is too much at stake.
(Scroll down for letter on polls from Abrams’ campaign)
Subject: Stacey Polls
See letter from Laura
Reaching out to share that we continue to see a tied race in polling and a really strong early vote by mail application pool – Dem leaning and very female. Of the early vote by mail requestors 35% are Black and 60% are women; those voters represent about 30% and 55% of typical turnout normally. And there are more than twice as many ballot requestors now over the same period 4 years ago. We are focusing on putting together our final message and ramping all aspects of our media and outreach, while building out our ground game and early vote challenge which we just rolled out to get rolling on a massive week 1 of early vote over the next four weeks. Here are all the ways you can get involved to help us win: staceyabrams.com/earlyvotesocialmedia. Two major polls came out today that I wanted to share some background on in case you’re curious:
They have gotten tremendous push back on this poll, and admitted that they are making the nonsensical decision of not weighting using party, more here: https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1572306442907942912
2. The Marist poll that came out today has a 49-51 women-men sample. In the last few cycles women have been 55% of the electorate in GA. We haven’t seen a majority male electorate in Georgia’s recent history. This can’t have been reflective since at least the 1980s – in 1992, exits had GA at 51-49 women-men. In addition, on Marist:
· 28% Black sample, which is significantly lower than the 30% most pollsters are using.
· 32-40 D-R is still extremely R given past exits
· Democrats are actually more unified than Republicans – 93-5 compared to 90-5. If the sample was less aggressively R we would be in a tight race.
For the polling nerds and wonks who want more on today’s wild UGA-AJC poll: This poll is a product that should embarrass the AJC and their continued association with UGA’s polling team. Despite having a perfectly reasonable (though still somewhat conservative) likely voter sample in July (44-47 D-R), they decided they needed to change it to a 42-51 D-R sample this month, without explanation. If the weights on party were the same as last time with the same crosstabs, Abrams is down 45.4-47.5 – within the margin of error which is more in line with the Q poll of last week and the internals we released showing us in a statistical tie.
According to the poll with its very bad weights, we are down 43-51. This outcome was pre-determined by the electoral composition. We obviously would not win an election where Republicans are more than 50% of the electorate, but this is so far from the reality of Georgia (and almost any other state, given that self-identified Independents tend to be high enough even in the reddest states that we don’t have an R party ID over 50%) that it is laughable to suggest that this is what the electorate would look like.
This poll was in the field from September 5-16
In conclusion: In the version of Georgia where Republicans have an outright majority of voters, an outcome that has never been seen before, we do not win the election. In an electorate resembling reality, this race is in the margin of error, with us gaining ground with most groups. This polling is really bizarre and in no way should be taken seriously by anyone.
Abrams for Governor